Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community - View Single Post

DeluxeMoustache · 04-05-2023, 12:11 PM

I know they are very good in shot suppression metrics. I agree. That’s not in dispute

It’s not just me, it’s a good number of the analysts that talk about this being the story of the Flames’ season. They talk about the breakdowns leading to grade A chances.

Sure they are average at raw number of giveaways. But nothing counts Zadorov being up in the NZ when Kadri gifts them a puck. Nothing counts Kadri being stripped resulting in a 2 on 1, where he cruises behind, watches the goal, and blames the ice. Those are highly unusual

In fact, holding a team shotless for a 20 percent chunk of the game is highly unusual as well, from a probability standpoint

You know that the actual probability of goals being scored on a breakaway are over 30 percent, right?

If you held a team to 10 shots and all were clear breakaways, you would expect from a good goalie 3.00 GAA and .700 sv%. Your shot suppression metrics would be great too. That would not actually be bottom of the barrel goaltending, but you would call it that.

There is literally nothing in the stats that account for Z stepping up and being out of position (which will only be significant if they lose possession) while Kadri simply hands the puck to the opponent down low. I assume we agree on this. The stats you refer to do not account for defensive posture.

That 12 minute stretch with no shots makes the goalie look a lot worse when Kadri nonchalantly turns it over to create a 2 on 1, and he doesn’t bust his ass to try and break it up

I think it is funny, we have gone over it many times. The stats you are referring to suggest they are doing a great job. They show that they are in fact good at volume shot suppression.

Their break downs are not like every team. They are more frequent and worse. The system is effective in terms of possession and suppression. The breakdowns are bafflingly egregious. I don’t know why you can’t accept that, and why you keep pointing to data that doesn’t measure what I am talking about, like it refutes it

Kadri’s one hand push of the puck, you think all teams and all players do that? His game stood out among all players last night.

You blame the goaltending and point to the stats. To me, they reflect a team that, defensively, is penny wise and pound foolish.

04-05-2023, 12:11 PM	#13
DeluxeMoustache Moustache Join Date: Mar 2010 Exp:	I know they are very good in shot suppression metrics. I agree. That’s not in dispute It’s not just me, it’s a good number of the analysts that talk about this being the story of the Flames’ season. They talk about the breakdowns leading to grade A chances. Sure they are average at raw number of giveaways. But nothing counts Zadorov being up in the NZ when Kadri gifts them a puck. Nothing counts Kadri being stripped resulting in a 2 on 1, where he cruises behind, watches the goal, and blames the ice. Those are highly unusual In fact, holding a team shotless for a 20 percent chunk of the game is highly unusual as well, from a probability standpoint You know that the actual probability of goals being scored on a breakaway are over 30 percent, right? If you held a team to 10 shots and all were clear breakaways, you would expect from a good goalie 3.00 GAA and .700 sv%. Your shot suppression metrics would be great too. That would not actually be bottom of the barrel goaltending, but you would call it that. There is literally nothing in the stats that account for Z stepping up and being out of position (which will only be significant if they lose possession) while Kadri simply hands the puck to the opponent down low. I assume we agree on this. The stats you refer to do not account for defensive posture. That 12 minute stretch with no shots makes the goalie look a lot worse when Kadri nonchalantly turns it over to create a 2 on 1, and he doesn’t bust his ass to try and break it up I think it is funny, we have gone over it many times. The stats you are referring to suggest they are doing a great job. They show that they are in fact good at volume shot suppression. Their break downs are not like every team. They are more frequent and worse. The system is effective in terms of possession and suppression. The breakdowns are bafflingly egregious. I don’t know why you can’t accept that, and why you keep pointing to data that doesn’t measure what I am talking about, like it refutes it Kadri’s one hand push of the puck, you think all teams and all players do that? His game stood out among all players last night. You blame the goaltending and point to the stats. To me, they reflect a team that, defensively, is penny wise and pound foolish.