Not every team that tanks to rebuild will win the Stanley Cup, or even contend for it. But most teams that do win the Cup or are regular contenders have tanked at some point, not always on purpose of course. Again, just saying most, not all. There are always exceptions.
It's not like a team tanks, drafts a few times in the top 3, then just sits on their hands waiting for things to happen. There always has to be ongoing retooling and adjustments even after you built your core through the draft. I'd say that most rebuilds that fail don't do so because the theory behind top 3 draft talent is unsound, but rather because they sucked at managing what came next.
Building through lower round picks is putting a lot of your fate in dumb luck. It can work, but it isn't a strategy. Supplementing your team with expensive free agents to make up for it means the cap will likely hold you back. A big part of why Colorado won the Cup wasn't because they have a top 3 drafted talent like MacKinnon, but also because they were paying him well below market value for what he brought, which is not something free agents typically do or depth draft picks for that matter.
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"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
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