[TheIronMaiden]

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/20...r-in-the-world

Ken Regan, a chess master and computer scientist, said he started developing the model in 2006 after a high-profile cheating accusation by Bulgaria’s Veselin Topalov against Russia’s Vladimir Kramnik in their world championship game. Regan’s model analyzes the possible moves in a chess position and projects the probability that a player of a given skill level would make a move that agrees with top chess engines. “Then, through what’s really a human judgment process, one arrives at the final odds and decides whether they are extreme enough to reject the null hypothesis,” – that is, the assumption of fair play.

Because the software analyzes the moves of the game itself, it works on over-the-board games as well as online, where the cheating rate is “100 to 200 times” higher, Regan said. Sinquefield Cup officials asked Regan to run the program on Carlsen and Niemann’s game and the results were unambiguous: “I found nothing,” he said. Regan’s model showed Neimann’s performance “was one standard deviation up” on some metrics, “but by definition the standard deviation standardly happens”