I think I've referenced Nat Bullard's decarbonization trends presentation before, but if I haven't, I highly suggest people who are interested in this stuff check it out:
https://www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations
Anyways, he has a slide about a survey question to 200 O&G executives about the energy market. One of the questions is about the age of inexpensive natural gas in the US ending due to LNG exports and underinvestment in production. Almost 70% of them expect prices to rise substatially and permanently by 2025. That's a pretty significant change.
The followup questions to that then become:
a) what does this do to the competitiveness of battery and other storage?
b) what does this do to the economics of heat pumps?
c) what does this do to investment in electfication of industrial heat processes?
Also, if Canadian gas continues to be cheap as it is somewhat landlocked, does it make economic sense to build a pipeline south? I genuinely have no idea what kind of economics would be required and where that would be.
I'm not sure what price spread is required between Europe and North America to keep the US gas price high, but the what happens to prices once LNG onfrastructure is fully built in and Europe decreases LNG use? I suppose Asia will increase in usage, but they can't support quite as high of a price as Europe has.
Fascinating and really hard to predict where this goes, but I don't anticipate Canada's gas sector to be hurting for some time either way