[Mathgod]

Moving a conversation we were having in the technologies thread to this thread...

Originally Posted by Azure

Interesting that nobody is talking about the carbon emissions question.

We're at what, 0.03 per cent CO2 per tonne with the newest Canadian LNG projects? Can we go lower? And if we can, doesn't that then change the 'we must move away from fossil fuels' debate?

Originally Posted by Mathgod

"Nobody is talking about it" because it's a question that was answered long ago. The target is zero carbon emissions. Therefore yes we must move away from fossil fuels as quickly as we feasibly can. But it won't happen overnight. Is there room for NG use during the transition? Absolutely.

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

As long as your thoughtful and prepared about the consequences of that.

Originally Posted by Mathgod

A response like this makes it clear to me that you are not aware of what warming of more than 2 degrees C would mean for humanity.

The economic consequences of doing what is necessary to prevent that level of warming will suck. But they'll pale in comparison of the consequences of blowing past that level of warming.

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Well, fill me in.

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Spoiler!

Originally Posted by Mathgod

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2865/a...atures-matter/

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/figures/

Here's what also worries me. Recent refugee crises (Syria, Ukraine, and others) have led to the rise of far-right reactionary heads of state around the world such as Trump, Bolsonaro, etc. What will the reaction be when the number of refugees increases by an order of magnitude? We're probably looking at social upheaval and violence on a scale that we haven't seen in our lifetimes (or maybe ever).

And there could be diseases frozen in permafrost that we don't even know about that could be unleashed on the world once the ice melts.

Originally Posted by Leondros

Man I hope you stretched before making such a large leap. Let’s stick to facts rather than wild speculation and what-if scenarios especially when there is more than enough misinformation surrounding this topic coming from both sides of the camp. I think Street Pharmacists illustration answered the topic pretty clearly. These are all based on modeling so always subject to change as well depending on inputs and assumptions used.

The two links I posted show projections that are based on a collaboration of the best science on the matter that's available on planet Earth. If they can be flippantly written off as "speculation", then so can just about anything on any topic. I don't think it's reasonable to write things off as "wild speculation" when they are, in fact, projections that are based on things that scientists do know about the physical world.

Street Pharmacist's illustration gave a quick summary of what will happen to wildlife and the environment, but it didn't delve into what will the impacts on humanity actually be.

The question of climate refugees is not speculative - it will with complete certainty happen, due to increased flooding, more intense storms, heat waves, and droughts wiping out crops, and some areas of the planet simply becoming too hot to live in. The amount of human suffering will be immense and it's only a question of how immense it will be. The part about far-right-wing figures rising to power in reaction to migration crises is also not speculation - it's stuff that already has happened and continues to happen.

The part about diseases trapped in permafrost I'll admit is somewhat speculative, but it's not baseless speculation; there are scientists out there who have already found some diseases from melted permafrost and believe there could be more threats to come, including potentially unknown threats. https://news.climate.columbia.edu/20...ng-permafrost/

If we always wait for perfect, full, complete information before taking action to protect ourselves from potential dangers, we're never going to get around to actually protecting ourselves from anything. Just look at the decades of feet-dragging and head-burying that has led us to the mess we're currently in regarding climate change. Pretending that a problem isn't real doesn't make it go away...