Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil Russell
I am pretty skeptical about advanced stats. And I am a data guy. It's not they aren't measuring real aspects of player's games, but rather, that they don't seem to be really consequential when it comes to the win loss column. Or at least not always. The Flame's play this year is a case in point: I think you really have to squint hard to see silver linings in the team's play despite what the advanced stats say. This is a very average performing team.
They have a system that generates some good advanced stats but doesn't win games. And they have other more consequential problems as well like bad performances from key players and, seemingly, bad chemistry/culture. There is a lot of blame to go around for sure, but if we come ack to the what can actually be addressed and what can't, it seems like a no-brainer that Sutter has to go.
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It's a game with 100s of individual outcomes that determine games.
You can't win the advanced stat war and win every game, but it's certainly indicative.
If you look at the bottom ten teams in the points % right now only the San Jose Sharks stand out having decent underlying numbers but a brutal spot in the standings. But they're ranked 32nd in save percentage.
If you look at the top ten in points percentage the Rangers are the sore thumb. They're bottom third in some metrics but top ten in shooting and save percentage.
You can beat the odds, but when you see 6 of the top 10 teams in most metrics at the top, and 9 of the bottom ten in metrics at the bottom it's a pretty good barometer for the foundation (not the result) of success.
Calgary up to date ...
CF% 2nd (high shot volume)
SCF% 4th (getting shots from the slot)
HDCF% 12th (still upper half in high danger)
xGF% 3rd (shot volume plus decent home plate gets you 3rd)