Quote:
Originally Posted by CroFlames
I think there are some misconceptions out there about Russian mobilization.
Russia has regular mobilization (twice per year I think) during peacetime. These mobilizations we hear about these days are partly just routine, but obviously partly to reinforce the ranks in combat right now.
Likely don't see mass revolt because the mobilizations are commonplace there.
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Yeah, much of the western media have trouble understanding how conscription armies work, and constantly confuse normal conscription service cycles with mobilizations in their news.
...I guess I'll explain this if isn't obvious to everyone on the forum; The significant difference is that the conscription cycles don't (under normal circumstances) increase the number of troops, as a roughly equal number of troops will finish their conscription service and become reservists when the new conscripts arrive to take their place.
The law which bans using conscripts outside of Russia is also still in place, and to some extent they are still applying this rule to the annexed Ukrainian lands (meaning: not even the Russian government really thinks they're part of Russia), but in true Russian style it's not consistent. They can use conscription units to take the place of other units within Russia, that can then be moved to Ukraine.
New draft cycles coming in is usually not called mobilization, that word usually refers to calling reservists that have already finished their service back into service, meaning the total number of active troops is increased and new units are created/activated. (I'm skipping details here which are irrelevant.)
Since Russia is already short on armored vehicles and equipment to give to their existing units, I don't see a proper large scale mobilization in the horizon. The so called "partial" mobilization very likely already called up as many men and units as their logistics can handle, and most likely the size of the current army in Ukraine is the maximum of what Russia can field at this point. Further mobilizations are most likely local and piecemeal processes, which is why there probably won't be new major announcements on the topic.
Another reason why there probably won't be new "mobilizations" is that Russia can increase the number of men drafted into service quite a lot by just fiddling with the conscription system.
In normal circumstances as much as one third of men avoid the draft one way or the other, so they can add something like 50,000 men just by cutting down on that, and if they start retroactively applying new standards, they can probably draft at least 100,000 young men by chasing down older draft avoiders. Russia is also reportedly planning some other stuff that will allow them to increase the number of troops just by fiddling with the conscription system.