Quote:
Originally Posted by Huntingwhale
I am not an expert in UA politics, but have been following it a while so I kind of know their system and obviously get my fair share of updates from my wife and such. There is absolutely NO scenario where UA will willingly give up their land to strike a peace "agreement" with Russia. None. They will have to kill each and every Ukrainian before that happens.
However if you would have asked this question pre-2022 invasion , you would have gotten a different answer. I asked many people in Kharkiv when I visited the first couple times in 2018 their opinions on the occupation in Donbas and Crimea. Shockingly, the general consensus from almost everyone was that Crimea was Russian before so it wasn't a big deal to give it back. As well the people living in Luhansk and Donestk aligned themselves more with Russia than Ukraine and often felt they were rivals compared to the people more to the central and west of the country. They did however agree that the annexation of Crimea and occupation of Donbas weren't done properly (legit voting, referendum, etc) and could have been done better, but by and large it wasn't as big of a deal since it was mostly Russian sympathizers their anyways.
That all completely changed Feb 24 when the invasion happened and russian soldiers started raping babies/children and brutalizing the population. A population that those regions saw as brothers with lots of interconnections. Literally overnight those regions are now almost entirely pro-UA. It has been fascinating to watch this transition of a population over such a relatively short completely change their view. lmagine if you will most Trump supporters changing their stance within a week. Craziness.
Each and every Ukrainian, regardless of where they are in the world, knows full well their is no peace deal to be made with russia that won't get broken in a few years time. This is something Westerns, whom we make our deals in boardrooms and generally do it in good faith, fail to understand. And as long as those westerns keep assuming, falsely, that russians have the same mentality that we do about honoring deals, the more this nonsense goes on.
I really hope the west wakes up one day and gives Ukraine the striking blows to end this thing by force. Because that is how it will end, and what russians understand; force. Not peace deals. Not handshakes. Force. You don't make deals with terrorists. You arm yourself to the teeth and get ready to kick the #### out of them when they try it again.
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Salient points, and they cut to what has bothered me about this war since the beginning. It was totally unnecessary. I think a scenario could have emerged where sufficient russian population in the eastern provinces and Crimea leads to a democratic split and then fold into Russia. Russia just couldn't wait and their authoritarian leaders are anathema to the diplomatic, democratic process. They don't understand it enough to see why it could have worked that way if they waited and tried.
Russia, from the time of Catherine 2 at least, has really only understood occupation as a way of gaining territory. Perhaps even beyond that horizon, but I'm thinking the partition of poland is a good example of this mindset evolving and never leaving that nation.