Quote:
Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
I'd caution a little on the exhausted Russian military issue. While some estimates put their losses at 240,000+, Ukraine has lost most of their best soldiers too and western estimates peg their losses at about 20,000. Most of the info we get on casualties is Ukrainian army info, which is very much also propaganda. Ukraine is hurting a fair bit and probably doesn't have anywhere near the capability of drafting more men like Putin does. Having said that. Momentum is everything and if they can get off on the right foot and Putin can't manage to get more lethal aid from Iran or China, I'd say Ukraine has an OK shot at getting some territory back
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Yes the Ukrainians are hurting in terms of casualties, but the Ukrainians are probably taking more casualties in Bakhmut since they are holding forces back and doing things like rationing shell consumption/sending troops off to get trained so they don't have the force concentration at the front to hold Russians off better than they currently are. General Zaluzhny has asked forgiveness to the frontline troops bearing the brunt of the casualties for this.
It might be understating it a bit to say Ukraine doesn't have the capability to draft more men, they have a draft system in place that they are not really using it they way Russia is because they have a lot of volunteers and they have a much longer training lead time. They also don't throw men immediately into the fight and are holding them back to get them trained in UK, US, and other NATO countries for the push; Just the UK saying they will train over 25K+ troops this year and are looking to increase that number. This doesn't count other NATO countries training programs.
Thing is I don't see Russia improvement their training for their conscripts/Wagnerites any time soon so don't really see the loss ratios increasing in Russia's favor. Even their best tank divisions (1st Guards Tank Army) are getting old BMP-1s and T-62s (based on OSINT) which should make the Russian loss ratios even worse when the Western armor arrives. There have also been reports from Russian milbloggers of mutinies with several units (like the 155th separate marine brigade, etc) refusing to fight after having suffering heavy losses, being reconstituted (filled with replacements), and thrown back into the front multiple times. What will barely armed and trained conscripts do except keep dying at current or higher than current ratios vs. Ukrainians? That to me says exhaustion for Russia.