Quote:
Originally Posted by jeffman
Hopefully this ends the Yemen civil war, saving hundreds of thousands of lives
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Yemen civil war has been at a "standstill" in arms for almost a year now. The two sides had a truce from May to Oct last year which expired and they've been negotiating various concessions to extend it again. There's been skirmishes and the odd attack and handful of casualties, but the days prior to May 2022 of mass bombings / death / rampaging war where hundreds / thousands were being killed have not been going on for awhile.
However, the huge issue today is that the Houthis are preventing the Yemen gov from exporting oil without an extension to the truce based on their agreed terms, and +90% of state revenues come from this. As a result the country's finances (and by extension the Houthis finances) have plunged. So it's more about preventing mass poverty, famine, etc. at this stage.
Further, since this announcement the Houthis are claiming that Iran doesn't govern and dictate to them what they do. So they are basically messaging 'yeah nice that you guys went and made a deal, but a Yemen truce has to be on our terms' more / less. If Iran stops supporting them; this will be the lynchpin to a deal though as they will be out of options. Then it will be on the Yemen gov to show restraint and not push to regain lost territory, etc.
There are other key non-complicating factors not included in this post as well that add complexity and risk to extending the truce.