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powderjunkie · 03-11-2023, 10:41 AM

This is actually an optimistic bump. There's been lots of talk about Huby's decline being unprecedented. I don't think that's totally true in a broader sense (though 115 to ~55 will almost certainly be a non-injury record):

Huberdeau had 346pts in his previous 286 gp. Currently on pace for 55 pts.

Teemu Selanne
350pts in 300gp (final 12gp were with SJS).
First full season in SJS = 54pts (age 31). Then 64 pts and even 32pts (78gp) in 2003-04 with COL.

The post lockout rule changes and returning to ANA saw him bounce back to 90 and 94 pt seasons and an elite twilight to his career.

Ron Francis
340pts in 310 gp (final 14 were with PIT)
First full season in PIT was 54pts in 70gp (age 28)

He was ppg+ for the next 6 seasons in PIT

Jeremy Roenick
384pts in 339gp (incl. 69pts in 72gp in his first season with PHX)
His second season in PHX was 56pts in 79gp (age 28)

He bounced back to a ~75pt player for another 3-4 seasons

So there's at least 3 great players who hit speed bumps soon after changing teams, but bounced back to roughly their expected production.

There are a bunch of less dramatic examples:

Denis Savard went from 1.25 ppg in his last year in CHI to 0.84 in his first year in MTL (age 29). Modest improvement for a few years thereafter.

Jari Kurri 1.19ppg age 29 in EDM to 0.82 first year in LAK; bounced back to ~ppg for 2 more years.

Doug Weight 1.10 age 30 EMD to 0.80 first year STL; then a couple better years.

03-11-2023, 10:41 AM	#330
powderjunkie Franchise Player Join Date: Dec 2011 Exp:	This is actually an optimistic bump. There's been lots of talk about Huby's decline being unprecedented. I don't think that's totally true in a broader sense (though 115 to ~55 will almost certainly be a non-injury record): Huberdeau had 346pts in his previous 286 gp. Currently on pace for 55 pts. Teemu Selanne 350pts in 300gp (final 12gp were with SJS). First full season in SJS = 54pts (age 31). Then 64 pts and even 32pts (78gp) in 2003-04 with COL. The post lockout rule changes and returning to ANA saw him bounce back to 90 and 94 pt seasons and an elite twilight to his career. Ron Francis 340pts in 310 gp (final 14 were with PIT) First full season in PIT was 54pts in 70gp (age 28) He was ppg+ for the next 6 seasons in PIT Jeremy Roenick 384pts in 339gp (incl. 69pts in 72gp in his first season with PHX) His second season in PHX was 56pts in 79gp (age 28) He bounced back to a ~75pt player for another 3-4 seasons So there's at least 3 great players who hit speed bumps soon after changing teams, but bounced back to roughly their expected production. There are a bunch of less dramatic examples: Denis Savard went from 1.25 ppg in his last year in CHI to 0.84 in his first year in MTL (age 29). Modest improvement for a few years thereafter. Jari Kurri 1.19ppg age 29 in EDM to 0.82 first year in LAK; bounced back to ~ppg for 2 more years. Doug Weight 1.10 age 30 EMD to 0.80 first year STL; then a couple better years.