On the one hand over the 15-25 year life of the heat pump the grid is going to green itself up more where the average KW likely makes the heat pump reduce CO2.
On the other hand the I don’t think average is the way to look at it. The question is the marginal KW. Essentially if we are always bribing gas for power then I think it’s better to think of any new electrical loads as being natural gas powered because that is where the swing demand is coming from
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