[Dion]

Pollster tells Danielle Smith, Rachel Notley what's what

For Coletto, it seems these reluctant UCPers are responding to Smith week to week, based on what they hear from the premier “and whether they think Smith is a safe, consistent and stable choice to lead the province going forward.”

“For this group, stability is very important.”

Right now, some in this group have not settled on what they will do on the May 29 voting day.

In December, they weren’t really comfortable with Smith, the first impression wasn’t great.

In February, they were feeling more comfortable, thinking “maybe the crazy had been turned down a bit.”

Now, In March, some of them have put themselves back on the fence.

Number-crunching Coletto says these are individuals who support oil and gas, who are deeply concerned with the economy, who want Alberta to succeed.

“Their instinct is not to trust Rachel Notley. These are naturally conservative voters.”

When all is said and done, some of these UCP voters could well stay home on May 29, which would not be as bad for Smith as going out and voting NDP.

Why is that?

“In part because I don’t think Rachel Notley has given them enough of a reason to support her and the NDP, to overcome their hesitation. These are people who’ve never voted NDP,” says Coletto.

“In order to win the election she has to convince people who have never voted NDP to vote NDP.”

For that to happen, says the noted nose-counter, Smith has to appear “even less appealing.”

“People need to fear Danielle Smith getting re-elected. And they have to feel Rachel Notley won’t drive the province into the ditch.”

The latest poll is no bowl of cherries for Smith and the UCP.

But Coletto figures it’s worse news for the NDP. Their support is not growing and they need a few more points for the big win.

“They’re not moving. They’ve hit a ceiling and they don’t know how to break through that ceiling.”

https://calgarysun.com/opinion/colum...-rachel-notley