I can't see any reason NK would launch nukes at the US or SK for fun. But I can definitely foresee a scenario where Putin sees this as his last hurrah and tries to do so. You're right, there are plenty of fail safes in Russia to make that more difficult so I doubt it happens at all. But if I have to choose, I see the country currently trying to pull off an invasion on it's neighbor and tossing out nuke threats as a significantly more dangerous threat to push the red button, than Kim sitting on his throne trying to stay relevant. I also think (again, not an expert) that IF NK tries to launch something, it will be easier to shoot out of the sky (if that's even possible) or take out their launch sites before that happens. With Russia the best bet is to not even let it get to that point, as no such air defence system exists to stop all they could shoot, not to mention the many subs they have swimming around.
Hopefully neither of us are right and we get to live to a ripe old age where MAD keeps us all in check. As brutal as it is for Ukrainians, hopefully it stays a conventional war until russia is forced out.
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