Quote:
Originally Posted by PepsiFree
It’s also ten years old capturing a period of time ten years before that, so as I said I’m sure things have changed.
I do think elite players and guys that keep up high averages through their mid/late twenties hold onto them longer, though. I haven’t seen much that disputes that and it matches the “eye test” or whatever we’re calling anecdotal evidence. I would have to guess that big contributors to any drop off are guys in that mid/lower range of production and guys that run into injury trouble that can impact their game.
I don’t see a lot of reason why high skill offensive guys that don’t really excessively on foot speed or strength would drop off much into their early/mid 30s.
|
The overall demographics of the league will play a role too. If its a younger league with more young players pushing for jobs those windows of production will be shorter. If it's an older league they can be longer although in an older league there tends to be less scoring. Years from now I expect Covid will have a bit of a blip as it messed up young players for what will be 3 seasons. So may explain why a 26 year old McDavid might have his highest producing seasons after 25...might not.
I looked just at goal scoring for forwards a few years back and for the majority of players the peak goal scoring season happened by age 25. But most of the guys who consistently had scored did so well into their 30's. But it was those players who only have one 30 goal season by age 25 who likely fall off at the end of their 20's. As with anything there will be exceptions. Hence I have always believed that it's important to have your best forwards in that 22 to 28 age group. Defence that window can extend as players typically have a better all around game with more experience even if their point totals fall off a bit. Get too far outside that and I believe it will be harder to be an elite team.
So a team like Colorado has Makar, MacKinnon, and Raatanen in that range. Tampa Bay is starting to move outside of that now with Stamkos, Hedman, and Kucherov although Point is still there. Pittsburgh now in my opinion is too far outside with their top guys to be an elite team. If the elite players are really good you can be elite until they are early to mid 30's. Boston being a juggernaut this year is a surprise though...part if it is Krejci and Bergeron delivering huge value. But over say a 15 year period there will be outliers that fall well outside the profile of an elite team.