[SuperMatt18]

For simplicity sake lets pro-rate everyone to 60 GP.

Winnipeg: 35-24-1 71 points (.500 over their prior 22 games)
Seattle: 32-21-7 71 points (.545 over their prior 22 games)
Flames: 27-21-12 66 points (.523 over their prior 22 games)

So every team would have 22 games remaining.

Let's say conservatively the teams the Flames need to catch play .545 hockey the rest of the way. So not their current pace, but kind of in line with how they've played the last 22 games.

That would put them at 95 points - which isn't far off a historical playoff line, but a little lower than the current trend would be based on current point percentages.

Flames would need to get to 96 points, or 30 points out of the remaining 44 games which is a .681 point percentage.

Bottom line they need 15 wins in 22 games. Break the rest of the season into 3 game series and you need to win those series (2/3), and win your last game, and you are likely in the playoffs.

Round 1: Boston, Toronto, Minnesota
Round 2: @ Dallas, @ Minnesota, Anaheim
Round 3: Ottawa, @Arizona, @Vegas
Round 4: Dallas, @LA, @Anaheim
Round 5: Vegas, SJS, LA
Round 6: @Vancouver, Anaheim, Chicago,
Round 7: @Winnipeg, @Vancouver, Nashville

Game 82: San Jose

IMO they need to win the bolded - the schedule isn't impossible. That is 15 wins - only 5 (Boston, Minnesota x 2, Dallas, LA) would need to be against playoff teams.

The Flames schedule this year is a bit messed up in that the softest part of the schedule is easily their last 20 games IMO.