Thread: [Game Takes] Avalanche 4 Flames 1
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Old 02-26-2023, 11:30 AM   #26
DeluxeMoustache
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
Sigh ... we do this every damn game.

1. The models aren't perfect and they will improve.
2. The models are applied to every team and every goalie
3. The models take into account danger by region on the ice and entry point for the shot (tip, rebound, pass into home plate)
4. So a team that doesn't shoot dangerously will have less counts on the scoring chance and high danger level and with that accrue less impactful shots towards expected goals.

They're not perfect. They can certainly be wrong.

But over the course of a season it's certainly doubtful that a team or a goalie has found a way to generate for or against in these models in a consistently different way than other teams or goalies.

That's the rub.

The Flames with the same coach and system had top 5 metrics in most defensive categories last year and had the 4th best goaltending. This year same metrics and the 29th ranked goaltending.

But you want everyone to believe they've found a way to give up higher danger chances than the opposition in the same system with the same coach getting the same metrics which I'm just not willing to concede (nor should I as there isn't a lick of data to support that)


The previous 2 games I pointed out selected outlying events

Last game I described every single shot the opposing goalie had to face, and contrasted the goals Marky allowed. That’s the ‘lick of data’.

They are different, man.

Sutter even stated last night the D lose a lot of one on one battles

I just don’t get how you can watch the games and not see exactly what is happening. Because it happens a lot

Good shot suppression, but too many 10 bellers on our side
Shots from good locations in to the pads or a set goalie on their goalie’s side
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