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Originally Posted by Itse
Additionally:
You can't start negotiations from the position that Russia should just leave Ukraine. That would be Russia 100% capitulating and admitting it was all for nothing. It's also not a reasonable ask from Putin, who would probably be literally killed if he accepted such a peace deal.
Any early end to the war would have to start by Ukraine recognizing at least some of the annexed land as Russia. That's just the situation.
And while you can argue that China selling arms to Russia is going to prolong the war, it's not really as simple as that.
The war continues as long as both sides think they can still gain something on the battlefield. If China starts arming Russia, that might very well put an end to Ukraine/west thinking this is a winnable fight. Simultaneously China gets rich on Russia's expense and gets massive amounts of influence over Russia. That's what the US would do.
China isn't the US though, so I have no idea what they're actually going to do.
Let's also remember that China keeps selling components and small drones by the thousands to the west, so the west saying "you're not neutral because you're dealing with Russia" is somewhat hypocritical. The west is using a definition of "neutral" that basically means "countries that trade with us but not Russia, but aren't directly arming Ukraine".
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Ukraine and indeed the rest of the world cannot give Russia any recognition of these new made-up borders, not even an inch.
Security is at stake for all nations moving forward if aggression is rewarded with territorial gains. This aggression will not stand, man.
As for Russia losing this thing and it being perceived at home as an all for nothing catastrophe threatening Putins political position and life, well, this underestimates his greatest strength- his cunning. Before the invasion he paraded his entire cabinet to publicly proclaim their enthusiastic support for the special military operation. He was acting on a mandate he can say. The gay-jew-nazis used their demonic black magic to unfairly curse the Russian army he can say. Wagner attempted a EU-backed coup and caused the front lines to collapse he can say. The Russian propaganda machine is finely tuned domestically and they'll lap it up. He'll spin this loss somehow into a net gain for his offices power. Maybe perpetual martial law.
He also wears high heel shoes.
https://youtu.be/lY6lHjZjYXE