[Itse]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

It's hardly surprising, and I think it's an honest attempt from China, especially after seeing that extended interview from that retired colonel.

They want peace, that is clear. They also don't want to antagonize Russia because they are their biggest neighbor. So they make statements stating they want peace, but don't use words that would piss off the Russians like Crimea, War, Donbass, Atrocities, etc.

It's like when the US invaded Iraq. Canada was against it, but they weren't about to start antagonizing the US with inflammatory speech, but it would have been warranted. What the US did in Iraq was criminal and did not have the backing of its Allies.

Yeah I think some people are being unnecessarily hard on China here. I think there's mostly positives from that announcement, and some I think very fair points, even if they are unpopular in the west.

To begin with, yes, if you want to help bring about peace through diplomacy, you can't call either side names, even names they deserve like "genocidal megalomanic psychopath". Even if everyone is thinking it, it's just a basic starting point for diplomacy to not say that stuff out loud.

Things I consider straight up positives. Most of these lines are from the detailed version:
- "The threat or use of nuclear weapons should be opposed." This is a pretty straight jab at Putin and Russia. Coming from China, this could actually have an effect on Russian rhetoric, which would be great.

- "The security of a country should not be pursued at the expense of others." This is also a pretty straight jab at Russia. They're the ones using the "we attacked to defend ourselves" rhetoric. China is saying they're not buying that, and there's a lot of countries that listen. (It's also a bit of a jab at US for what they did in during "The War on Terror", which is also extremely fair.)

- "The sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively upheld." China is saying they're not likely to recognize annexed Ukrainian territories as part of Russia anytime soon, and that they think Russia is in the wrong here. They're not saying it strongly enough to tie their hands or offend anyone, but they're still saying it, which is better than nothing.

- "Facilitating grain exports". This is a topic that got a lot of attention at the start of the war but has been a bit forgotten, it's good that China wants to bring this back to the forefront. Hunger can breed more instability in other parts of the world, that's bad, and also hunger is bad and always hurts the poorest and the weakest people. It's also something Russia and Ukraine have agreed upon before.

- "Ceasing hostilities" and "Resuming peace talks". This isn't the talk of someone who's about to start supporting one side militarily. Of course China might be lying about this, but I doubt it. They have a lot of goodwill to lose from supporting Russia, and very little to gain, and they've put a lot of work and resources into building themselves up as the nice superpower that doesn't drag it's allies into wars. I think this is legit, China mostly just wants this to be over.

Now for the stuff that I don't think is "good", but I think are extremely fair points from China:
- "Stopping unilateral sanctions. China opposes unilateral sanctions unauthorized by the UN Security Council. Relevant countries should stop abusing unilateral sanctions and “long-arm jurisdiction” against other countries, so as to do their share in deescalating the Ukraine crisis and create conditions for developing countries to grow their economies and better the lives of their people."

Why does Joe Biden's administration get to decide what sanctions are put on Russia? Yes, everyone understands the geopolitical reasons that create this situation, but it's extremely reasonable to point out that the US unilaterally deciding what "needs to be done" and then bullying others to follow them isn't exactly fair. We don't have to like it here in the Ukraine-supporting-West, but you can't say China doesn't have a point here, especially when you zoom out of this specific conflict. It's not a fair system for the world, and China is saying out loud what much of the world is thinking. Especially since many of the countries that are being pressured by the west to join in on the sanctions on Russia are much weaker economies than those in the west, and it's not like they're getting compensated for sanctioning Russia. This is one of those topics that's not discussed much in the US and western Europe, because we're mostly not the ones getting bullied, but it's a real issue that frankly should be discussed more. Personally I think this should be discussed after Russia has been thrown out of Ukraine and Putin lies dead in an unmarked grave, but the west regularly using economic sanctions as a weapon is unpopular in a lot of places and a real cause of international tension.

This will earn China a gazillion goodwill points and backchannel "thank you"s from a lot of countries that feel like they're being pressured into taking sides in a war that has nothing to do with them. I get it, and I actually have a lot of sympathy for the developing countries taking extra economic hits right after The Pandemic.

- "Keeping industrial and supply chains stable." This is in part a repetition of the previous point, but they're obviously also saying they're not going to start sanctioning Russia. (At least not very hard, they've been doing some things.) It's not great, but it's nothing new, and it's better to just have it clearly out there. They're a superpower, this is their primary interest here, and others will just have to deal with it. It's de-escalation by being open about what they want.

The upside of the whole of what China just said to me is that they pretty clearly said they want two things: Trade, and "peace" which also means more trade. So I think we can believe them when they say they don't like this war. Because the other option was to prolong the war by arming Russia. Doesn't sound like they're interested in that either.

That also very heavily suggests that they're not about to make moves around Taiwan at this point in time. China wants trade to flow, which calls for lowering tensions, so doing something about Taiwan is not in China's short term interest right now.

Just overall, China's message to me was kind of a reassuring one; they're still superpowered a-holes, but they don't think this war is in their interest and they don't like the way international tensions is interfering with them getting richer, and I think you can generally trust someone when they're admitting their selfish interests.