Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
I don't think anyone has to be all that fancy to point out Calgary goaltending hasn't been that good this year.
The models are helpful in my mind because the Flames don't give up a lot of shots and it's unfair to a goaltender to just point at save percentage if you give up say 20 shots but 9 of them are really difficult.
But from the simplest of stats to the most intense of models Calgary goaltending doesn't add up.
And they're getting torn apart specifically in medium danger chances ... not the super easy ones, not the really tough ones.
So pointing to a tap in three times this morning doesn't do it for me. Those happen to all teams and to all goaltenders. It's part of the averaging.
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Not really. These guys have each only played 23 and 38 games, respectively
Statistical models are usually declared with confidence intervals such as 90% confidence, 19 times out of 20
In several games, we have been able to point to a few unusual things. Things that happened to the Flames that game, but not to the other team
Like I say, the last 2 games, the actual events of Tanev’s own goal and Pietrangelo’s tap in - we are 2 for 2. The xG contribution for each of those is probably medium danger based on shot location contribution, I am guessing. Not sure. There is no equivalent on the side of the other team
That’s the point
When you have an above average number of instances like this, you simply can’t say it happens to all teams and goaltenders.
Like I said, given the mere fact that we have this conversation repeatedly, you could choose to consider that there may actually be something there. But you don’t.
I don’t think anyone has to be too fancy to say that the team has had lots of defensive lapses this year, or that there have been a good number of unlucky bounces.
I truly believe that the Flames are good at shot suppression on the whole, but that they have a large number of egregious breakdowns that see the shooter given time and space. No model measures it. The danger buckets don’t distinguish it.
That 2 on 1 where Toffoli was looking skyward and the D was on his ass? Cruised right in, picked his spot, and took his time. Zero pressure
But it happens more nights than it should. It’s frustrating to watch. Kadri has delivered so many turnovers lately you’d think he was running a bakery
I know what the stats say, agree that we are not getting a Vezina nom any time here soon, but truly believe both the goalies have gotten a bit of a raw deal here