Quote:
Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina
Ok so lets look at the 2015 NHL draft to see if the end of the first and early second was actually better.
2015:
27. Noah Juulsen: 58 GPs
28. Jacob Larsson: 172 GPs
29. Anthony Beauvillier: 465 GPs
30. Gabriel Carlsson: 75 GPs
31. Nick Merkley: 41 GPs
32. Jeremy Roy: 0 GPs
33. Christian Fischer: 376 GPs
TOTAL: 1187 GPs
2014:
27: Nik Goldobin: 125 GPs
28: Josh Ho Sang: 53 GPs
29: Adrian Kempe: 448 GPs
30: John Quenville: 42 GPs
31: Brendan Lemiuex: 257 GPs
32: Jayce Hawryluk: 98 GPs
33: Ivan Barbashev: 408 Gps
TOTAL: 1431 GPs (with one extra year to work with)
2016:
27: Brett Howden: 255 GPs
28: Lucas Johansen: 3 GPs
29: Trent Frederic: 172 GPs
30: Sam Steel: 250 GPs
31: Egor Korshkov: 1 GP
32: Tyler Benson: 38 GPs
33: Rasmus Asplund: 164 GPs
TOTAL: 883 GPs (with 1 less year to work with)
It's not that much different.
Even the 2003 draft, rightly held up as an amazing draft, from 27-33 has Brian Boyle who had a long but not really notable career. But Cory Perry is sitting there at 28 and Loui Eriksson at 33. Perry makes that draft at that spot. The rest - same 'ol same 'ol.
Drafts are largely defined by what is available at the top, and how deep you can go before it normalizes.
The key is to go beyond the hype. Because the hype ain't accurate.
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Not all the teams trading 1sts will win in the first round. It is possible that these picks are in the 17 to 24 range. Strong drafts seem to have more guys in this range.
But if you go through the 2012 to 2016 drafts, all of them have 1 star taken in the 18-26 overall range.