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Originally Posted by PeteMoss
The most logical play to me for China is to be the peace negotiator and making sure the terms work for them. I don't see how picking a fight with the EU and the US makes much sense for them unless they think Russia is on the brink of collapse.
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Wang Yi announced at the Munich security conference that they have a peace plan proposal that they will be releasing later this week. What I saw of the US delegation at the conference seemed to be kind of dismissing the idea before even seeing it, but hopefully it has promise.
They definitely don't want to pick a fight with Europe, but they probably feel a fight is already going on with the US and the prospect of the US leading regime change in Russia is really the only condition that I think could potentially push China to get involved. I don't really see how regime change is even much of a possibility, but if for some reason the people leading these initiatives believe that's possible, it would be a point of extreme tension.
The US is obviously making a show of trying to put pressure on China to stay out of it. I would guess the prospect of China getting involved is more just about trying to pressure the US back for things they are doing in the Pacific, doing with chips, and doing to try to exclude China from trade with other partners. If China were to get involved, it would be bad for everyone except Russia, but probably less bad for China than having the US involved in Russian regime change and much worse for the US and Europe than not having China involved.