[Senator Clay Davis]

If they were playing any other QB but Mahomes I'd feel 95% confident in an Eagles win. But even Mahomes at 80% is in the conversation for best QB in the league, so he offers more hope than any other QB. Even if he can't scramble like he could at 100%, he is still absolutely elite in the pocket, as long as he can shift in the pocket to buy time he is still lethal. And there's the whole Andy Reid bye week record, always hard to ignore a guy with such a dominant record in this situation. He's been a bit too reliant on Mahomes since he took over as QB, today feels like he needs a more robust game plan, using the screen game will be big.

But I mostly think the Eagles win because they have more ways to win. Hurts can have a bad day throwing, and they can dominate on the ground. They could struggle on the ground and win it in the air. Or they can struggle completely on offense and have their defense ball out and steal it for them. I only see one path to the Chiefs winning, and while it is riding Mahomes greatness, as we saw back in SB55 even that isn't necessarily enough. I can't see the Chiefs running game winning this, and I can't see their defense stealing it.