Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18
If he has 80-90 points then that would be fine for his contract. Literally Connor McDavid is the only consistent 100+ point threat in the league for the most part.
And Huberdeau has actually been pretty stout defensively this year - probably the best defensive results of his career.
And that is 100% related to the dip in his offensive production (along with weird PP usage).
He hasn't quite learned how to play his offensive game - while also being solid defensively. He's had flashes, but hasn't been able to string anything consistently, and has really had a hard time finding open ice.
Some of that is our system as Jack Han mentioned, Flames play in the trenches not the open ice. Some of that is not cheating defensively to get more open ice on the odd man rush. Some of that is not really finding a fit with a center that's not Backlund yet.
But interesting part is if you look at goal splits - his improved defensive play has actually led to a net impact that is the same or similar to his results in Florida.
Actual Goals For %
19/20: 54.4%
20/21: 57.9%
21/22: 56.5%
22/23: 54.4%
Expected Goals For %
19/20: 49.2%
20/21: 52.2%
21/22: 53.4%
22/23: 54.3%
So he's traded offensive production for defensive play - and the net impact of his contribution from a GF/GA perspective is pretty much net netural to his impact in Florida. Just playing way lower event hockey.
And honestly I think with better finishing on his line we'd probably see more produciton too because he hasn't really meshed with his linemates or found a linemate that he can play those little one-two passes that he likes to play yet.
Lots of room for improvement but I do think he's doing what the coaching staff is asking him to do in terms of attention to detail and being more defensively responsible. He just hasn't found how to do that while being prolific offensively yet.
(And interestingly enough Tkachuk has the highest xGF of his career, but also the highest xGA of his career, and even though his production is up his GF% and xGF% is actually down vs 21/22 in Calgary. So he's producing more offense but has traded his defensive play to do that a bit).
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He has traded his offense for defense so I don't think he'll be able to be defensively as responsible and at the same time being offensive as productive as before.
But either way I know a PPG pace sounds great right now since he has been so bad but I think people would be severely disappointed even if that happened. If he puts up something like 20+60 while getting superstar money, it's not enough to me at least because so many of his points come on the PP and are (secondary) assists. And like I said before, he doesn't bring anything else to the table. He's not a difference maker at that point.
Nevertheless I was only saying he would still be overpaid even at PPG pace, I don't think the contract would be a franchise killer. But I'm probably overly pessimistic (wouldn't be the first time) but this whole point seems moot since I don't see him getting to even PPG pace under Sutter.