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Originally Posted by Slava
The media is projecting this wrong anyway though, as usual. They're looking at the percentage of votes and saying it's a close race, but that's somewhat misleading. I think that Smith and the UCP have a major problem here because the distribution of the votes is not good for them. They have a commanding lead rurally, and that makes the percentages seem closer than they really are. But when you consider the seats and how those votes are distributed it has to be the NDP with a lead here, and potentially sizeable.
You can win a seat with say one more percent than everyone else. But winning with say 70% of the vote still equals one seat. So, its kind of irrelevant. For a poll like this, it helps even out the percentages, but won't result in more seats.
The media does this every election. It's more evident on the prairies, federally, but it's the same mistake.
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Isn't it the opposite? The UCP vote is much more efficient than the NDP.
The NDP have to sweep Edmonton and surrounding areas and win the majority of Calgary.
The 338 Canada article that Yoho (I know, I know) posted earlier actually talked about that:
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— The X factor: The regional distribution of votes will matter a great deal in the 2023 Alberta election. Although the Alberta NDP is polling well above its 2019 results, it suffers from a vote efficiency disadvantage. Why? In rural and small-town Alberta, polling shows the UCP enjoys dominant support. It gives Smith’s Conservatives a much higher floor of safe seats.
Put another way, because the NDP vote remains highly concentrated in Edmonton and Calgary, Notley’s party could tie or even surpass the UCP by a handful of points and still lose the election to the UCP.
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https://www.politico.com/news/2023/0...otley-00079299