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Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache
^ stats capture high or medium danger chances (as defined by the particular model). They absolutely do not capture ‘terrible chances’
Stats do not capture anything at all about the team defensive position or contribution.
They do not capture if the goalie is set or not
They do not capture pressure on the shooter and resulting shot placement
Etc.
Those are the kind of things that can make a terrible defensive breakdown become a goal
The Flames can hold a team to a low number of HDCA but sprinkle in a handful of those, and you can easily allow a goal and lose a game
The models are pretty good at comparing overall balance of play
Bingo appears to be assuming that these things are essentially equal for all teams. I personally don’t agree.
The key point is that the stats don’t refute it. They don’t measure it. It’s a limitation.
Remember the Chicago game? Just off the top of my head, the third and 4th goals
The goal where both Weegar and Zadorov covered Patrick Kane, who dished to Dickinson to go in all alone, in the slot?
The odd man rush where Hanifin inexplicably challenges the puck carrier at center ice, gets blown by, Huberdeau is the guy back and Coleman dove, Lafferty easily taps in a cross crease pass?
This team has made brutal costly mistakes all year on the defensive side of the puck
The advanced stats I am interested in have to do with zone entries, chances from rush vs cycle, odd man rushes, etc.
These danger models are an attempt to improve on raw save percentage, to group probabilities of goals by separating in to rough buckets. Good.
But they don’t really actually tell you if a goalie has been particularly good or bad. And absolutely do not capture terrible chances
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How can you say what other teams do againts all other teams though? Unless you watch every single game.
Flames SH% by type:
Overall - 7.83% - 24th overall
High Danger - 17.37% - 7th overall
Medium Danger - 9.02% - 20th overall
Low Danger - 2.81% - 22nd overall
How can the Flames rank by each type be better than their overall rank? Easy, they lead the league in low danger chances and shots. Chances by a mile.
I've been saying since the summer, this team needs someone with speed that can skate blue line to blue line and then make something happen once they gain the blueline. This team needs to grind for every chance they get.
So, if this team needs to grind for every chance, is it not possible we make the other teams d and goalies look good?
Sorry but we use stats because we don't work in the industry and simply can't watch every game every night. Can't evaluate every teams d vs ours just by watching 1 team 82 times and every other team 2-5 times.