Won't let me quote you GGG, but:
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n general over the past history of mortgages variable is lower cost. The problem is that we live in a discrete moment in time so on average shorter and more variable should pay off however you have to live with the fluctuations.
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After today's hike, best variable rates will be around 6.10-6.35% depending on the lender (5-year terms), whereas 3-year fixed rates can be found around 4.89%. Haven't seen a spread like that in all my time in the industry. Even if we assume rates come back down in 2024, you're at minimum ~1.30% higher for a year if going variable. Then the question becomes how quickly will the BoC lower rates to make up that spread.