I'm not sure there is going to be an easy supply of replacement batteries from other sources. You can't just swap a bunch of cells, since they are all laser welded or have small wires welded to each cell. The new Tesla packs are impregnated with a urethane foam which is nigh impossible to disassemble.
That leaves the option of building from scratch. So then you have every model of car needing it, and Tesla alters designs so often you will need multiple designs per model. For a 3rd party this starts to become expensive, so I suspect most replacement batteries will come from manufacturers. The pouch cells other manufacturers use might be easier, I haven't watched much on battery design for those.
I could see a decent return on packs, since current raw material price is around $8k per pack. They still need to be broken down and recycled, so a few grand sounds reasonable.
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