Quote:
Originally Posted by powderjunkie
A 23 year old isn't signing an 8 yr deal unless it is really really really worth their while. Robertson has set himself up for his UFA deal:
best case scenario = $100M +31M = 131M
likely = 64M-80M = 95-111M
worst case = 0-?? = 31M - ?? (but I can't think of any once promising players who found themselves out of the league or dropping their AAVs significantly by age 27)
So you'd have to pay him pretty close to $100M on this deal to make it worth his while, because a UFA deal for a 31 yo winger is far harder to predict (plenty examples of guys falling off by then), and could easily be a lot less than the 31M deal he just signed.
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You're suggesting the Stars would have had to pay a player like Roberston 12M+ AAV for 8 years with one significant season under his belt at the time? You realize this would be McDavid money, right (and the highest AAV in the league)? Which he signed after multiple 100 point seasons versus Robertsons single 79 point year....
Not a chance that a 7 or 8 year deal last summer would have been higher than $10M or maybe a $10.5M AAV given the track record of the player.