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Shawnski · 12-31-2004, 02:41 PM

While searching through the tragic stories of the Indian Ocean disaster, I came across some articles that discuss the likelihood of a volcano in the Canary Islands that will at some time drop a massive chuck of its mountainside into the Atlantic. Predictions are that the subsequent tsunami would devastate the North American Eastern seaboard, reaching as far north as Iceland (possibly even Britain) and as far south as Brazil. The story broke a few years ago, but seems a bit more newsworthy considering recent events.

Scary stuff, but a good read.

In 1949 the southern volcano on the island erupted. During the eruption an enormous crack appeared across one side of the volcano, as the western half slipped a few metres towards the Atlantic before stopping in its tracks. Although the volcano presents no danger while it is quiescent, scientists believe the western flank will give way completely during some future eruption on the summit of the volcano. In other words, any time in the next few thousand years a huge section of southern La Palma, weighing 500 thousand million tonnes, will fall into the Atlantic ocean.

BBC article

The real carnage will be on the western side of the Atlantic, from
Newfoundland all the way down the east coast of Canada and the United
States to Cuba, Hispaniola, the Lesser Antilles and north-eastern Brazil.
With a clear run across the Atlantic, the wall of water will still be
between 60 and 150 feet (20 and 50 metres) high when it hits the eastern
seaboard of North America, and it will keep coming for ten to fifteen
minutes.

Worst hit will be harbours and estuaries that funnel the waves
inland: goodbye Halifax, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore and
Washington, DC. Miami and Havana go under almost entirely, as do low-lying
islands like the Bahamas and Barbados. Likely death toll, if there is no
mass evacuation beforehand? A hundred million people, give or take fifty
million.

Gwynne Dyer - Unstoppable "Gee-gee's"

A study by Steven N. Ward, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Santa Cruz, California and Simon Day, Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre, Department of Geological Sciences, University College, London, United Kingdom were the folks that tabled this study.

The best geological evidence that we have paints a Cumbre Vieja collapse sending down a slide block 15-20 km wide and 15-25 km long....Using a geologically reasonable estimate of landslide motion, we model tsunami waves produced by such a collapse. Waves generated by the run-out of a 500 km3 (150 km3) slide block at 100 m/s could transit the entire Atlantic Basin and arrive on the coasts of the Americas with 10–25 m (3–8 m) height.

Tsunami model

A pic of the volcano...

And a pic of the likely tsunami path....

Another pic of possible path and impacts...

12-31-2004, 02:41 PM	#1
Shawnski CP's Resident DJ Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: In the Gin Bin Exp:	While searching through the tragic stories of the Indian Ocean disaster, I came across some articles that discuss the likelihood of a volcano in the Canary Islands that will at some time drop a massive chuck of its mountainside into the Atlantic. Predictions are that the subsequent tsunami would devastate the North American Eastern seaboard, reaching as far north as Iceland (possibly even Britain) and as far south as Brazil. The story broke a few years ago, but seems a bit more newsworthy considering recent events. Scary stuff, but a good read. In 1949 the southern volcano on the island erupted. During the eruption an enormous crack appeared across one side of the volcano, as the western half slipped a few metres towards the Atlantic before stopping in its tracks. Although the volcano presents no danger while it is quiescent, scientists believe the western flank will give way completely during some future eruption on the summit of the volcano. In other words, any time in the next few thousand years a huge section of southern La Palma, weighing 500 thousand million tonnes, will fall into the Atlantic ocean. BBC article The real carnage will be on the western side of the Atlantic, from Newfoundland all the way down the east coast of Canada and the United States to Cuba, Hispaniola, the Lesser Antilles and north-eastern Brazil. With a clear run across the Atlantic, the wall of water will still be between 60 and 150 feet (20 and 50 metres) high when it hits the eastern seaboard of North America, and it will keep coming for ten to fifteen minutes. Worst hit will be harbours and estuaries that funnel the waves inland: goodbye Halifax, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, DC. Miami and Havana go under almost entirely, as do low-lying islands like the Bahamas and Barbados. Likely death toll, if there is no mass evacuation beforehand? A hundred million people, give or take fifty million. Gwynne Dyer - Unstoppable "Gee-gee's" A study by Steven N. Ward, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Santa Cruz, California and Simon Day, Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre, Department of Geological Sciences, University College, London, United Kingdom were the folks that tabled this study. The best geological evidence that we have paints a Cumbre Vieja collapse sending down a slide block 15-20 km wide and 15-25 km long....Using a geologically reasonable estimate of landslide motion, we model tsunami waves produced by such a collapse. Waves generated by the run-out of a 500 km3 (150 km3) slide block at 100 m/s could transit the entire Atlantic Basin and arrive on the coasts of the Americas with 10–25 m (3–8 m) height. Tsunami model A pic of the volcano... And a pic of the likely tsunami path.... Another pic of possible path and impacts...