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Interesting read from German news outlet De Spiegal interviewing a data scientist with independent Russia pollster Levada about the average Russian's mentality on the Ukraine war. It paints a very bleak picture of a population completely brainwashed by decades upon decades of propaganda. The interviews, which were done long form and in person after the scientist could not believe the initial phone results, found only 10% of the Russian pop felt any guilt and sympathy with the scientist concluding that Russian society as a whole is amoral.

Original article is in German, translation from reddit. Pretty interesting but sad read. Pollster reinforces the only way Russia will stop is a complete and humiliating defeat that will finally be able to cut through the propaganda.

Spoiler!

An interview by Christina Lever, Moscow December 29, 2022, 1 p.m. • from DER SPIEGEL 1/2023

Outside, in the winter rains, people stroll down lighted Nikolskaya Street toward Red Square, which is lined with booths and an ice-skating rink. Up on the second floor of an 18th-century building, away from the hustle and bustle, Lev Gudkov sits at his desk, presenting spreadsheets on his computer screen.

The pollster can judge how Russians think like hardly anyone else. The 76-year-old is the scientific director of the only independently operating Russian polling institute, the Levada Center. When Gudkov surveyed the mood among the people in Russia shortly after the beginning of the war, it was a turning point, he says. 68 percent of respondents supported the attack on Ukraine. After almost ten months, the picture he paints is even bleaker.

SPIEGEL: Mr. Gudkov, President Vladimir Putin recently said that "the special operation is taking its course, everything is stable." How closely do Russians follow this narrative – especially after the Russian army's setbacks in Kharkiv and Kherson?

Gudkow: State propaganda continues to succeed in creating a broad consensus. Most recently, the majority of respondents - 53 percent - believed that the military operation in Ukraine was going well. These are mainly people who watch state television, have little access to the Internet, older Russians. But there is also the other, smaller part of society, a third of those surveyed, who say that the operation was unsuccessful.

SPIEGEL: What reasons do people give for this?

Gudkow: You say the operation is taking too long and that there is no progress. People worry almost exclusively about their own country's military defeat, the chaos in the army, the incompetence of the leadership. For years they have been told that the Russian army is the strongest, has magic weapons, but that myth is gone.

SPIEGEL: The war itself is not being questioned.

Gudkov: No, the attacks on Ukraine and the massacres are irrelevant. The Russians have little sympathy for the Ukrainians. Almost nobody here talks about people being killed in Ukraine.

SPIEGEL: Please put a figure on that.

Gudkow: The proportion is just 1.5 to 2 percent of those surveyed. And only an average of 10 percent of the population feels guilty and shows empathy - so Russian society is amoral. Of course, she does not want war, but the people behave submissively, passively, do not want to get into open conflict with the state.

Express survey not published for the time being

SPIEGEL: So you're avoiding it.

Gudkov: The war revealed mechanisms in society that have existed since Soviet times. Out of habit, people identify with the state, adopting its Soviet-era rhetoric about their motherland's struggle against fascism and Nazism to justify the situation. All this has been in people's minds for a long time, the propaganda activates these patterns. They block any compassion and empathy for what is happening in Ukraine. That's only for your own dead and wounded soldiers, "our men."

SPIEGEL: Did you expect it that way?

Gudkow: No. This passivity and subservience disappointed me. On February 27, after the beginning of the war, we carried out an express telephone survey. At that time I still thought that the reaction would be very critical of the war. I was wrong. 68 percent supported the war. I was categorically against publishing this survey. Our employees were horrified at first, we had spent money on it, we as an institute don't get much out of it. But publishing such data in such a situation would only have added fuel to the fire. We only released the survey later in March, after government institutes released their data.

SPIEGEL: According to your surveys, support for this war increased even more.

Gudkow: Yes, it was consistently over 70 percent.

SPIEGEL: According to research by independent Russian media, more than 10,000 men are said to have died in this war, according to Western figures tens of thousands. Are people aware of the losses?

Gudkow: Not really. We are experiencing total censorship. Facebook, Twitter are blocked, plus a lot of internet media. The proportion of those who know how to bypass VPN blockades (services that create an encrypted online connection - editor's note) has increased from around six to eight percent to 23 percent, but it is still small. These are mostly younger, educated residents of the largest cities. The majority of the population is still exposed to the propaganda. For the vast majority, especially older Russians, the only authoritative sources of information are the state television channels.

SPIEGEL: Young people are more critical.

Gudkow: You have to look at the ratio: Among 18 to 24 year olds, 59 percent supported the war and 34 percent opposed it. By comparison, among Russians of retirement age, 79 percent were in favor of the war and 16 percent opposed. At the same time, 65 percent of young people believed that the attacks in Ukraine should stop in order to start negotiations. This shows the contradiction in people's minds, their double thinking: on the one hand there is their identification with the state, on the other hand the personal level, concern for their own lives. They are potentially conscripted and can be drafted. They don't like the war. They are not clear about the goals of the war, which are constantly changing, sometimes against the fascists in Ukraine, then against NATO. Added to this is the growing anti-Putin mood. Five years ago, most Putin supporters were in this age group. I spoke about the Putin youth back then, but now they don't exist like that anymore. And the negative attitude is also growing among the slightly older, up to the 30-year-olds.

SPIEGEL: What follows from this?

Gudkow: (laughs, then becomes serious) Even if these younger people don't want the war and are better informed through the internet, they submissively go along with it. Very few are able to take responsibility for the war. It all reminds me of how people behaved in the Soviet Union when they were sent to the collective farms to harvest. None of the students liked picking potatoes out of the ground. But they did it anyway because they knew: resistance and open protest lead to complete social exclusion. It is the same today.

SPIEGEL: Is that also the reason why people aren't protesting? Many in Ukraine and the West are wondering why almost no Russians are taking to the streets against the war. Gudkow: The willingness to take part in protests has fallen sharply in recent months. People are afraid of the police, of repression. The number of political prisoners is in the hundreds. But the essence is the fear of being isolated if you stand against the majority. For years I've asked in our polls, "Are you ready to fight if it's necessary?" And always more than 50 percent have responded, "Whether my country is right or wrong, I'm ready." Of course, many of those don't want to really fight, behave in a purely conformist manner to the state. We saw it: those who could ran away, out of the country.

SPIEGEL: But there are wives and mothers who publicly demand that their conscripted husbands and sons be given better clothing and weapons, or that they be withdrawn from the front.

Gudkow: Excuse the comparison: If I feed my dog later than usual, he doesn't bark at me, but at the corner where the food is usually. It's the same with these women. In principle they are against the war, but they cannot say so and therefore rail against the poor equipment of the army.

SPIEGEL: Putin is swearing by the soldiers' heroic deaths. Does this militaristic pathos work? Gudkow: Hardly. When the mobilization was announced, it was a shock. The people saw in it the impending defeat. In August, 48 percent said they wanted to continue fighting and 44 percent said they wanted peace talks. After the mobilization in October, the situation was reversed: 57 percent were in favor of peace talks, only 36 percent in favor of continuing the fighting.

SPIEGEL: What kind of peace negotiations are the Russians envisioning?

Gudkow: You hardly have any ideas about that. They don't understand that Ukraine won't get involved in this situation. It shows the imperial arrogance of this society. The point of view of the other is not understood, not accepted. In November, the number of supporters of peace talks fell again. The mood has calmed down somewhat after the first phase of mobilization was declared over.

SPIEGEL: And the next one will start again?

Gudkov: A majority of people assume that Putin is lying when he speaks of "partial mobilization." 66 percent think he will continue the mobilization. I don't think people will be that shocked again. The war has become routine.

SPIEGEL: What is the prevailing mood in society?

Gudkow: Uncertainty. People are very afraid that if the economic situation continues to deteriorate, this war could escalate into an all-out war with the entire West. This is a very painful response to Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons.

SPIEGEL: Does that mean that this fear also has a strong effect on the inside? Not only towards western countries like Germany?

Gudkow: War was feared here before it even began. In the collective consciousness he was there for a long time. People were prepared for this: all the talk that if something happened we would blow America up and turn it to nuclear dust, there was years before. Fear of nuclear war has been building here since the annexation of Crimea. Soviet stereotypes were catered for, such as the Russian complex of supposedly living in a besieged fortress, being a victim, and not liked by anyone. These are deep-seated mechanisms based on a militaristic and anti-Western ideology. Above all, they are taken for granted by older people who do not need any confirmation or argumentation. According to the motto: We've always known what it's like.

SPIEGEL: Putin has now been in power for more than 22 years. What distinguishes the "Putinian" people, you coined the term, ...

Gudkov: ...Yes, and I was immediately accused of Russophobia and slander by everyone...

SPIEGEL: ...from Soviet people?

Gudkov: In my opinion, the "Putinian" man is a continuation of the Soviet man, but the former is deeply cynical, confused and disoriented. Soviet man knew that life was not rich, there was always a lack of something, be it goods or variety. But he believed things would get better with time - that top-down optimism was essential. Now there is no hope, power is discredited: it is considered corrupt and selfish, it places itself above the law and treats people as interchangeable material. But she defends the national interest. And this achievement is attributed to Putin. He restored Russia's authority on the international stage. Despite all the fears, the "Putinian" person hopes that Putin will protect the country from the West and, like in the first years of his presidency, lead it out of the economic crisis.

SPIEGEL: So the real enemy was always the West, not Ukraine.

Gudkow: Responsibility lies with the USA, NATO and Europe. Ukraine is not understood as a sovereign state.

SPIEGEL: This anti-Ukrainian sentiment has been fueled for years.

Gudkov: At the end of 2013, when the Maidan began in Kyiv, an absolute majority of 75 percent said it was not necessary to interfere in Ukraine's internal affairs. The question of integration into the EU is their business. Only 22 percent felt that all means, including the military, should be used to prevent this. With the ouster of Kremlin-loyal Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, the tone has changed drastically. The propaganda spoke of a coup d'etat initiated by the USA. There was talk of fascists coming to power. A label that absolutely dehumanizes the enemy.

SPIEGEL: Do sanctions affect "Putinian" people?

Gudkov: Only about 18 to 20 percent of Russians feel the effects directly, that's the wealthier urban middle class. Most say they are unaffected. The poorer ones are busy surviving anyway, for them the sanctions take place on television.

SPIEGEL: Putin's approval ratings are consistently high, at over 80 percent, as they were after the annexation of Crimea.

Gudkow: Back then there was euphoria, now it's completely absent. State propaganda artificially perpetuates his high values: Putin is not charismatic, but is portrayed as such.

SPIEGEL: What has to happen for his approval ratings to drop?

Gudkow: A military defeat. We see that the shelling of the border regions, but also of the military bases, affects people. You hear that the tone of coverage of the war on state television channels has changed, there have been criticisms of the army leadership. Margarita Simonyan...

SPIEGEL: ...the editor-in-chief of the state broadcaster RT...

Gudkow: ...says that we will all end up in court in The Hague, from the caretaker right up to the leaders. The certainty of winning is gone. And yet, for many, there is still hope of being able to defeat the Ukrainian army. These are the contradictions that exist side by side.

SPIEGEL: In the Soviet Union, people were promised a bright future. What do you see for yourself under Putin?

Gudkow: Our view of the future has shrunk to just a few weeks. More than half of those surveyed say, "I don't know what's going to happen in a month." It's not possible to plan to save money that most don't have anyway. People understand that the war will last a long time.

SPIEGEL: You paint a bleak picture. How does all this affect you personally?

Gudkow: I would call it depression. An occupational disease. The total distrust of independent Russian media and political scientists is particularly difficult. Many refuse to accept our data and explanations. Questions keep coming up about how surveys can be carried out in a totalitarian state and at war when everyone is afraid and doesn't want to answer. How credible the data can be.

SPIEGEL: Legitimate concerns?

Gudkow: No. Of course we can do surveys. We go to great lengths to verify the reliability of our data. We typically conduct face-to-face interviews that last about an hour, rather than short, ten-minute phone calls. Our interviewers first build trust in such surveys so that the meaning of the questions becomes clear to the respondents. They repeat questions to clarify how reliable the respondent's answers are. People are not afraid to answer, this is a total misunderstanding. The response rate hasn't changed that much in recent months: it's around 24 to 26 percent. For comparison: In Germany it is slightly higher at 28 to 33 percent.

SPIEGEL: How do you see the future of sociology in Russia?

Gudkow: (exhales heavily) Most sociologists work for leadership. Every governor has a sociological service, it's all about safeguarding the interests of the state. We have worked with very good universities, taught, done projects, that will probably all come to an end.

SPIEGEL: You stayed in Russia and are public and very critical.

Gudkow: That's the meaning of my life, my duty. I'm already old, it's too late for me to move. We cannot plan far ahead here in the Levada center, the authorities could say tomorrow that we are engaged in anti-national activities. Then we would have to reckon with our closure.

SPIEGEL: Aren't you afraid?

Gudkow: It would be stupid not to be afraid.

SPIEGEL: Mr. Gudkow, thank you for this interview.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkrai...or_ukrainians/

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/russl...0-27e8e935a83c