Quote:
Originally Posted by Cowboy89
These numbers are meaningless for the CPC and show the same story since 2019, basically they have a solid 1/3rd of the country +/- 3% and that doesn't really change over time. Votes between GPC, NDP & LPC are somewhat fluid and like we saw in 2019 & 2021 will snap back to the Liberals to keep the CPC out if the prospect of a CPC government becomes the ballot box question in an election.
Barameters of a serious change is if you see the CPC break out of that range to the high side by actually taking votes away from the LPC or LPC vote share slippage to where the NDP look competitive where voters might not know where to park their vote to keep the CPC out.
It's pretty dismal prospects for the conservatives, they moved left with O'Toole and lost votes to the PPC, so they moved back right and lost votes on the left flank. They can't break out of that base. End result is the 'natural governing party' governs until Ontario voters deem them to be long in the tooth and in need of replacing.
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See, I think that's where the CPC gets it wrong. Forget the far right and PPC, taking votes from them is the equivalent of one vote. Take it for them the Liberals and it's a net 2 votes. That, and if you only gain votes in places like Alberta, you've wasted your efforts. So putting PP in was a poor move strategically. The CPC don't need to become Liberals, but they do need to distance themselves from the PPC crowd, not try to chase them.