Quote:
Originally Posted by The Fonz
Reminder that the monthly CPI release comes out on Wednesday, and they're forecasting 6.7%. This will be the 4th consecutive month it's spent stalled at this level (previous 3 were 6.9%, 6.9%, and 7.0%).
|
6.7% sounds a bit optimistic if anything, as that would require zero or slightly negative month-over-month inflation.
But staying around this number on year-over-year numbers is basically an inevitability given how everything was timed. Barring significant month-over-month deflation, the annual number was never really coming down to any great degree until the highest monthly inflation rates from early 2022 start falling out of the year-over-year data.
Similar to how house prices are still up year-over-year despite months of declines because of how much the gains from late 2021 and early 2022 are still influencing the annual data.