Quote:
Originally Posted by blankall
It blew away the first Avatar's numbers.
A couple things to remember, the film's screen count is limited by the need for higher end screens and the runtime.
They purposely positioned the movie ahead of the holidays so that it would get lots of viewings during the holidays.
This movie is also more of an experience than a movie. People aren't rushing to the theaters to find out what happens. There are lots of people, me included, who intend to see this movie but don't need to see it opening weekend.
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Avatar 1 was suppressed by a north east snow storm which kept it from doing 100 million and Avatar is no longer new IP so you’d expect it to open higher and have shorter legs. No comparison in this films legs should be made to Avatars either for good or bad.
I do agree that especially the PLFs will make this leg out more as you can see it if you just poke around theatres seat availability. Sold out IMAX and lots of room in conventional 2D. I also agree that the lack of social engagement relative to a MCU or Star Wars movie is much lower so that no spoiler mindset isn’t there. All these things plus Christmas should contribute to long legs.
I think an interesting movie to watch for comparison is Rouge one’s domestics performance. It opened on the same day in December had a similar open (155m) and did 3.43. Avatar needs to outperform this number to be successful. An equivalent performance gets it to about 1.5 billion. Both are not quite tier 1 IP and not spoiler driven.
Rouge 1 had a 53.3% Sunday to Monday drop and Monday was 11.3% of the weekend gross. So 17m by the first metric or 15m by the second. Compared to Rogue 1 it’s already having better Sat and Sunday drops so if today is closer to 17 than 15 I think we can safely say 1.5 is the floor.