Quote:
Originally Posted by V
Should be getting some kind of full capitulation here in the first half of the year, seeing a VIX of +45, and then it'll finally be time to buy. Until then, I'm just shorting the hell out of the Nasdaq.
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I think that’s what investors would prefer. The market craters like 30% and gets it over with, so to speak, and the recovery can begin. That’s possible, but doesn’t appear to be what’s happening. Instead it’s a bear market with ebbs and flows. The problem for a lot of people though, is that eventually one of these rallies holds and you’re creeping back into a new bull market, but you have no idea which one that will be in advance.
And to help make things murkier, we have a lot of pessimism this week and yet the markets in December aren’t actually down much at all. I sense a lot of negativity and people concerned about the markets crashing, but certainly over 2 months I feel like investors are positive. I suppose it depends on what you’re holding and how your portfolio is structured, but that’s my view.