Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteMoss
Next week - December 21
Their big decreased rate is still higher than our October rate (7.1% for them vs 6.9% in October for Canada) - so will be interesting to see what happens.
Fuel has been on a big decline for the past month and getting close to pre-Ukraine invasion rates of late here.
|
Canada's year-over-year number will almost definitely remain at roughly the same level (or even go up) in November and December. Unlike the US, our November and December 2021 inflation numbers were quite low (it was actually negative in December), so even with good month-over-month numbers, the annual number won't really drop like it did in the US.
Just to illustrate, if we have 0.2% inflation every month going forward (which is about 2.5% annualized), we'd have the following annual rates:
November 2022: 6.9%
December 2022: 7.2%
January 2023: 6.5%
February 2023: 5.6%
March 2023: 4.3%
April 2023: 3.9%
May 2023: 2.7%
June 2023: 2.2%
July 2023: 1.9%
Effectively, we have high YoY numbers baked in until early 2022.
So what I expect to happen is, the Canadian month-over-month numbers will be pretty good, but the annual number will remain high because virtually all of our current elevated inflation is because of January-June 2022 and the YoY number won't drop until those months start falling out of the data. Then people who don't understand how inflation is calculated (and those that do understand but have an axe to grind) will freak out and talk like the sky is falling.