Quote:
Originally Posted by octothorp
Mainstreet's poll out yesterday found only a 1-point lead for the NDP in Calgary, but if AR, Janet Brown, and Leger all have 6%+ leads, Mainstreet is definitely looking like the outlier there (their previous reputation makes that an easy narrative to believe).
But there's also some stuff in that Angus Reid poll that's surprising. Only a 7 point lead for the NDP in Edmonton? That makes 2 polls this month that have the NDP leading by more in Calgary than in Edmonton. I have a hard time believing that. Maybe there's a bit of a shift of the UCP alienating white-collar voters with their economic instability, but attracting blue-collar voters who might not have been previously politically active with their populism.
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The Angus Reid poll is this type:
Quote:
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The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Nov. 28 to Dec. 3, 2022 among a representative randomized sample of 591 Albertan adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
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https://angusreid.org/alberta-ucp-nd...rachel-notley/
I think with the small sample size and source of results makes it harder to draw accurate conclusions about individual ridings. That's, what, ~15 people per riding?