2-3 years seems sensible for anybody locking in right now.
This has been an interesting time where a lot of people have had their risk-tolerance challenged. TBH its a hard thing to really honestly evaluate beforehand, especially riding a decade plus of stability. I think something easy to miss when thinking about these things is the multi-factorial changes:
1. I'll be fine if rates rise because I have a good job
2. I'll be fine if I lose my job because I've got good investments
3. I'll be fine if my [higher-risk] investments crater because I've got a good job and my mortgage rates are low...
It seems obvious now, but I'm not sure the fatal flaw with those 3 statements would have jumped out to me (or most others) a couple years ago...it's much easier to imagine a singular cause-effect scenario (one of those things happening) than the interconnected scenario that we've seen play out.
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