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Originally Posted by FlameOn
Russia's already violated two sovereignty treaties and their own leaked internal memos (confirmed by their top propagandists on state TV) said they would take any ceasefire as an opportunity to rearm and reinvade anyways. Unless there is some kind of full NATO membership involved here for the loss of Crimea as well as armed NATO patrols of civilian shipments in the Black Sea, there is no ceasefire for Ukraine that would possibly justify the loss of security/economic damage of another guaranteed invasion.
If anything Russia should lose Crimea and the Sevestopol naval base as a consequence of their aggression on top of Ukraine joining NATO. Russia should not have the ability to hold the world's food supply hostage nor should they be rewarded at all for any gains made through military aggression.
Sadly Putin would rather send another 100K conscripts to their deaths than accept terms like that. The issue will have to be forced on him then with so many military defeats and domestic issues from dead mobiks he can't ignore the situation at home.
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After all the death and destruction that Russia has wrought, and the postion Ukraine finds themselves in regards to the momentum of the war, I simply don't see the Ukrainians pushing for anything less than Russia incapacitated and out of Ukraine entirely. As you say, if given an inch, they've taken a mile and kept going. This is existential so no half solutions will work here. Russia has been a major power for some time, but that doesn't mean it's inevitable that it continues. Putin is willing to waste all blood and treasure to avoid the outcome of losing this war so he sees it as existential too. The only real outcomes possible are complete subjugation of Ukraine or regime change in Russia and full withdrawal. Neither will come from negotiation