Agree with getbak.
I would let them know sooner than later that your intention is to allow his lease to expire and fill the impending vacancy with a new tenant. It helps to have one already signed and ready to move in on the day that the fixed lease expires but I wouldn't resort to trying to lie or BS. He could potentially already be wanting to move out early, in which you can mutually agree to terminate the lease early (win win) but if not then it's courteous to give them as much notice to find a new living situation.
If you're concerned about the tenant potentially getting violent and damaging the premises, you can always ensure you have peace officers on hand for the walkthrough on moving day. A friend did have to resort to this once. But getting the safety deposit back is paramount to all renters that are moving into a new place so I imagine they want to avoid losing it by damaging property.
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