Quote:
Originally Posted by Strange Brew
This kicker needs to me measured in actual points though. I don't get the relevance of using a factor based calculation (12x) when the standings are measured in actual points. Oilers have 15% more points than the Flames - this is meaningless. The gap between Oilers and Flames is 300% of the gap between Flames and Nashville - also meaningless.
Flames have the hardest remaining schedule in the league.
Panthers have the easiest.
Those are the absolute two extremes and based on remaining 59 games, their expected points based on SOS are different by 6.5 points. Those are the numbers. Every other club falls in between.
Is there much correlation between SOS to date and the actual standings? I don't see it.
But again I guess we just differ on the importance of 3 points in the standings after 22 games. It's a long season with thousands of variables, this is just one.
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The kicker matters ... how can it not? They're out side of the data set completely.
If you take two random teams say the Stars and the Ducks. One has an average opponent ranked 15.5 the other 15.8. That is super tight, they both round up to 16.
The Flames have an average opponent ranked 12.4 the medium team 16.0.
The 12th place team has a win percentage of .614, the 16th ranked team at .542. Over 82 games that's 101 point team vs an 89 point team.
You don't think playing a 101 point team 22 times would be more difficult and factor in total points than playing an 89 point team 22 times?