Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Three points in 22 games is pretty important in my mind.
But the bolded part ... that's sort of the whole point. The average gap between teams in difficulty of schedule is 0.16 which is a whisker in the standings, it barely matters at all.
The Flames gap to the next hardest schedule is 1.9 or 12X the average gap between teams. The next closest gap is 0.67.
If I'm trying to make an argument that the Oilers have had a more difficult schedule than say the Jets it would be silly ... they're very tight.
The curve has a kicker on it to the Flames which is significant and an outlier for these things.
Does it mean they should have double the points? No.
But it's certainly more significant than the Seattle example.
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This kicker needs to me measured in actual points though. I don't get the relevance of using a factor based calculation (12x) when the standings are measured in actual points. Oilers have 15% more points than the Flames - this is meaningless. The gap between Oilers and Flames is 300% of the gap between Flames and Nashville - also meaningless.
Flames have the hardest remaining schedule in the league.
Panthers have the easiest.
Those are the absolute two extremes and based on remaining 59 games, their expected points based on SOS are different by 6.5 points. Those are the numbers. Every other club falls in between.
Is there much correlation between SOS to date and the actual standings? I don't see it.
But again I guess we just differ on the importance of 3 points in the standings after 22 games. It's a long season with thousands of variables, this is just one.