Those xGA models do their best.
Looking at Bobrovsky, I would say the 2 on 0 with Dube and Mang would contribute pretty darn close to 1 expected goal. Of course that’s not how the model works. Because it will leverage probabilities, not execution of the particular opportunity. The Toffoli point blank slapper should be very high, as well.
You really have to take them with a grain of salt, and be aware of what they actually are, when referencing them
I know Bingo gets these things
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