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Originally Posted by JohnnyB
Agreed. Of course the government will be concerned about public perception of the their stewardship of society through the pandemic, but just look at the stats in a place like Taiwan to see what the spike in infections per day and death rate looks like when somewhere comes out of zero covid measures. China has no doubt saved millions of lives with zero covid so far, but they would still face huge numbers of people getting seriously ill or dying by giving up after what has already been a long period of public sacrifice.
In China the social contract is quite different as there is a more Confucian understanding of the state having a paternalistic role in ensuring well-being of the people by setting good rules and ensuring order, even if that doesn't really make people happy at the time. Unlike a Western context where government is more expected to regulate with minimal intrusion on individual liberties, transfer of risk to the individual isn't so easy in the Chinese scenario. Legitimacy in Chinese government roles depends upon trust in ensuring well-being in the long run rather than just right now. The problem is they're under circumstances in which maintaining zero covid and opening up are both options that present serious problems for well-being, short-term and long-term.
My hope is that we'll see some kind of compromise where the government will announce conditions or a timeline for reopening, or they will devolve some more authority to provincial governments along with targets for them to meet in loosening restrictions as they ramp up more capacity in the health system and vaccination among the elderly so they can navigate the situation with minimal harm to people's health, the economy, and social well-being.
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I think if the CPC goes and communicates an exit strategy, with timelines, the citizens will be happy. Like you said, the government there plays a much more paternalistic role (which the citizens appreciate, which leads to trust) which I get it, is hard for westerners with no ties to Asian culture to understand because its polar opposite from what our individualistic societies promote, but if the government can come out and say okay, here's the plan to actually get out of this situation, they'll calm down. Like I said I believe China has planned the first 2 years well - it's the exit they've effed up on.
Whatever ends up happening, my bet is on China being just fine. People would be surprised at how many protests actually happen annually across China since it goes completely against the western narrative about suppression, but if one looks into it, there are a lot of protests due to 1.5B people.