Quote:
Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache
..^Edit: just saw Kasi’s post which was posted as I was typing this. I agree
The thing about PDO is that it is interpreted by many as luck, but also can be systematic
There are two components - shooting percentage and save %
Shooting percentage - the Flames have a low shooting percentage. They also put up over 40 perimeter shots on Tampa, not getting to the tough areas.
On one hand, a really low shooting percentage is expected to regress to the mean
On the other hand, the really low shooting percentage reflects how they have been playing
Save percentage - similarly, the Flames are keeping shot totals against reasonable, but giving up a high number of high danger chances. I assume someone could show data on high danger chances vs shots allowed that would show something systemic. Plus there has been the odd stinker.
From a luck standpoint, you don’t expect the odd stinkers to be as frequent. Otherwise, I think the low save percentage has been a product of how they are playing
The way the Flames have failed to bring the effort and attention to detail for a full 60, the PDO is reflective of their play. They can’t just outwait it. They need to play better so they can change it
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That's simply not true.
The Flames are allowing 11.06 HDCA/60 which is good for 6th (But essentially tied for 4th with Seattle and Pittsburgh, 11.04 and 11.03 respectively.) In total shot count they're 4th in the league holding teams to 27.31 SA/60.
Calgary gives up 0.40 HDCA/SA which is pretty average. Carolina is the worst at allowing .45 HDCA/SA and Pittsburgh is the best at 0.33 HDCA/SA.