The whole US Thanksgiving thing is just so over done. And it is vastly overvalued. It really tells you nothing.
There are 8-10 teams that we can be pretty certain before the season starts are going to make the playoffs. And since they are good teams, they have probably already risen into the top half of the league at the 20 game mark.
At the same time, there are 8-10 teams that we know aren't going to make it. And those teams are likely already settling into the lower half of the league by the 20 game mark.
It's really only the middle 10-12 teams that are of any consequence. And the ones that get off to a good start are the ones that are probably going to have a good season and make it. The 'good start' will probably predict 4 of the 6 available spots most years.
That means that we should expect about 13-14 of the 16 teams that hold a spot at the 20 game mark, to be the teams that make it (which is about what we see).
Even if the middle group is completely random, it is still going to have 3 of the 6 correct, on average.
So have we learned anything? No, not really.
Plus, despite all this, if a team plays poorly the rest of the way, they'll fall out. And if a team plays well the rest of the way, they will make it. In other words, team status at the 20 game mark is irrelevant, and any team can change their status by playing well (or poorly).
In other words, it tells us nothing (that we didn't already know)
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