Quote:
Originally Posted by opendoor
But this isn't total war. It's not even taking place on Russian soil. If Russia ends up negotiating an end to the war with no gains, what makes it fundamentally different than any number of conflicts (Korean War, most wars in the Middle East, USSR in Afghanistan, etc.) where the aggressor's leader remained in power after the war despite heavy losses?
From our perspective, it's a disaster that Russia will fail to ever really recover from, but do Russians see it that way? At least strongly enough to overthrow their government? I seriously doubt it, at least at this point.
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Total war doesn't mean that your country gets invaded necessarily. Canada was fully mobilized and most definitely in total war in the world wars even if Canada itself was never in danger for example. The term total war has been used on numerous occasions to describe this war including by Zelensky and the Kremlin.
I can't say how this ends, because I honestly don't know and no one knows. Will Putin be overthrown? Maybe, but it would be an internal coup (Wagner most likely) not by the population. There are definite cracks right now but I'm not exactly expecting a revolution. This would be a best case scenario but one of the most unlikely ones, I agree with you.
If that doesn't happen is what is scarier. If Putin isn't going anywhere, he's not giving up Ukraine even if his military is no longer able to operate, and he has nukes, what's his next step? Right now he's getting resupplied by Iran with drones and ballistic missiles and it is believed that Russia will help Iran in their nuclear program and bypass sanctions.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-63328274
The Iran's direct military support for Russia throws a new wrench into the war. What is done with Iran? We are just over 8 months into a war that was supposed to be 3 days long. To put it in perspective at this time period in WWII France was still fully standing and had just started the battle for Norway. We have no idea how this ends right now.
All we know at this point is that Russia will eventually lose, the question is how will that look. Does Russia sue for peace and is allowed to keep Crimea for example and would Ukraine accept (unlikely)? Does Russia run an attrition war for years where eventually Putin gets overthrown. Is NATO forced to join the war because Russia crosses the line?
All of the scenarios are speculation. It's not ending anytime soon is one thing we do know, but we do have a new set of scenarios today then we did at the onset of the war that would have been difficult to predict.