Quote:
Originally Posted by Firebot
Plausible current NATO involvement scenarios.
Russia attacks a convoy ship now under direct Turkey (NATO) supervision on the pretense it was a Ukrainian mine and blames it on Ukraine. Collateral damage to a Turkey ship. Triggers Article 5
Russia uses a dirty bomb under the pretense that Ukraine is responsible, which has been threatened on a number of occasions. Triggers Article 5.
Russia invades via Belarus in a new front on the west side to cut off supply routes in very dangerous proximity to Poland. Very strong chance of accidentally triggering article 5 with this plan should it go ahead.
Any of these 3 could be current plausible catalysts for NATO involvement and have been directly warned as crossing the line.
Russia clearly isn't winning a war here in Ukraine, let alone one against NATO and so far has balked and blinked at each threat it did which could involve NATO. He has clearly showed he has at this point no intention of actually getting involved with NATO.
Does that matter if the moment Putin believes he is defeated he knows he will put out to pasture? That is if he can even rationalize he is defeated? He will cling to power as long as possible, and if that means as a last resort triggering NATO to intervene (think whatever scenario you want) he has the pretense for full on mobilization (he has already done partial mobilization, an unfathomable and irrational act months ago).
NATO has been clear and rational in wanting to avoid escalation as best as possible, while Russia wants to eradicate Ukraine and it's existence and is well past any arguable sense of rationality in terms of cost.
Russia invading Ukraine was considered a bluff back in February and that Putin invading is hysterical nonsense. So you can claim everything you don't like to hear as nonsense if you want, but this war has long past making sense and you have to face the situation as it occurs and escalates.
Back in February and March we were talking about sending helmets and vests to Ukraine, currently Ukraine pilots are directly training for F-16 use that is being provided by the US with Turkey ships escorting convoys.
And you still are in denial that this can't escalate further then what has already occured. Ok.
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It seems to me you are confidently incorrect on everything you type.
Maybe if you supported some of your assertions with links to expert analysis it might lend some credibility or at least offer the opportunity for the skeptics among us to look into where you're getting your opinions from.
Do you have support for any of your claims/assertions/points, or is this just you pontificating here? Like, I'm happy to take you seriously, but I don't know if it's your tone or just the implausibility if the conclusions you draw from your made-up scenarios, but when I read your posts I'm always thinking,
wtf is this guy talking about?