I think they do 1 more small hike this year and then look at the data going into 2023 with chance we see some 25 bps hikes or a continued hawkish tone threatening hikes. A lot of the BoC's job to adjust sentiment. If you can do that through fear of hikes rather than actual hikes that is deal - ie. change consumer spending habits without needing to do actual hikes at this point.
As for my sense on the recession, it will be inevitable - its likely we are already in one. 2023 is going to be a really tough year for folks.
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