Quote:
Originally Posted by powderjunkie
I guess I'm saying that I thought it was dumb to hazard an 'educated guess' at that time. Uncertainty seemed obvious. If I had to hazard a guess I'd see a pretty simple bell curve with 'modest increase' (whatever that means) at the peak. Attach whatever shape you want, but in my mind it was:
25% - status quo = variable slight win
50% - small increase = it's a wash
25% - bigger increases = variable slight to massive lose
There was just so much more risk than reward at the fringes.
|
Agreed. I will also say that some posters are preaching to the choir. It's kinda amazing the types of things some posters in this thread think other people know.
People who aren't short sighted in terms of risk and with typical attention spans of a goldfish (thanks smart devices!) are rare. People are also often sheep rather than willing to spend time to understand things themselves. It got obvious during the pandemic how many people subscribe to an echo chamber concept of "thought" on all spectrums. I didn't matter whether you were pro or con. People on all sides often do not think critically for themselves. They just follow others they "respect".
Grade 11 economics? Micro and macro economics are first year courses and typically only if you're in a business or math related program. I learned bookkeeping in grade 12 and I was the weirdo for not doing the shop class, programming etc.
Interest rates? Most people don't know anything about that. Their financial literacy is a barely passable understanding of monthly cash flow. They need a loan, they need a mortgage, they need a credit card, they "need" a thing that they saw on instagram or tik tok... people are really stupid. Ask some people to read a utility bill and many look at it like it's written in calculus.
The fact we are in this thread posting means we are not normal. Normal people are unfortunately financially illiterate more often than not.